Tropical Storm Erika

Mapp Declares State of Emergency until 5PM Friday
http://stthomassource.com/content/news/local-news/2015/08/28/mapp-declares-state-emergency

.3" of rain and a few 1" limbs is enough for state of emergency?

.3" of rain and a few 1" limbs is enough for state of emergency?

An excuse for government employees to enjoy a second day off and for Mr Mapp to utilize the extra-wide seat belt in the helicopter which is to take him soaring over the USVI later on today to "survey" the "damage".

On either this or a related thread yesterday, a contributor chastised me for apparently not understanding that the technology has changed drastically in the last couple of decades and that the forecasting of storms is infinitely more accurate than it was back then. I couldn't disagree more. The trackers only predict, there are way more of them, the hyperbole has multiplied and it's still a guessing game.

STX got the winds last night--little rain. Trees and branches down, several roads blocked. Power remains out since around 7 last night.

St Croix was harder hit, so emergency responders from St Thomas may he deployed to assist, leaving St Thomas with fewer emergency personnel. There are downed power lines on St Croix from what I hear.

One tree down, bunches of limbs scattered about & a downed power line in my neighborhood on STX.

STX, entire island without power right now. No updates on WAPA website and their phone number is not working. I know their guys are out there working hard though. This may have been a "small" storm but we live on an island and these are the trade-offs that for many of us was a choice we made. Let's just hope those workers are able to get power restored as quickly and safely as possible.

Winds got pretty intense where I am on STX last night (near Cheeseburgers). Some big limbs down on property, no power, and iffy cell service, even though nearest cell tower is 200 yards away. So I imagine it could be as bad or worse elsewhere on island. The silver lining is the extra 7 inches of water in the cistern.

Rum Runners web cam is back up. That's promising. Not so many trees between WAPA and downtown C'sted to take out power lines.

State of Emergency lifted on St Thomas as of 8 a.m. this morning.

More importantly, no curfew.

I've heard that feeders 1 and 5 should be back up on STX.

OT: You can disagree all you want, but meteorology has advanced a great deal in the past few years. There are multiple buoys, satellites, dropsondes and all sorts of methods of gathering data. Computer models analyze the data. The cumulative data gets re-evaluated, etc. Each year they have gotten better and better at determining the direction of storms. The "cone of uncertainty" is pretty darn accurate for three days. Storms are NOT a point, they are large weather systems. For example,we were in the cone for Erika three days ago.Erika was not a strong storm like Marilyn. It was disorganizing and reorganizing the whole time. The center kept moving about. Various mechanisms were acting on it to steer it south, as it turned out. We still had exactly what was predicted- tropical force winds (39mph+). It is not a guessing game, it is science.

The jog to the south that Erika took resulted in STT/STJ having minimal impact. Remember, originally it was forecast to basically track right over STT/STJ within 10 miles. My sister said they got no rain in her location near Cruz Bay and just a couple gusts. That was it.

There were a few good gusts about 3AM and minimal rain here in
my location. No leaf litter to speak of and my decks aren't even wet under the deck roof. Power went out for about 5 min.

As OT mentions, "The trackers only predict, there are way more of them, the hyperbole has multiplied and it's still a guessing game."

Storms are unpredictable which is why it's important to prepare for the worst, hope for the best and be grateful when we get it.

According to a radio news report, their are widespread power outages in STX.

STX seems to have suffered more from TS Erika than we did and I hope their power gets restored and conditions normalized, quickly.
Hope at the least, you got more rain than we did!

Curfew still in effect for St. Croix, Only.

Alert / Warning Meteorological - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

...This is an ACTUAL SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ALERT...

Issued By: VITEMA Affected Jurisdictions: St. John, St. Thomas, Water Island Counties

Headline: Curfew Lifted for St. Thomas-St. John District Only as of 8 AM Today

Governor Kenneth E. Mapp announced at 8 a.m. today that the curfew has been lifted for the St. Thomas-St. John district only.

All roads are clear for motor vehicle traffic.

The forecasters are almost to the point of the "boy who cried wolf" for me after last year's Gonzalvo and this year's David and Erika. These guys are below the Mendoza line. (Baseball reference)

After having them forecast Marilyn in '95 as a min. 90 mph hurricane,
I just always prepare for the worst and pray for the best. Marilyn had winds of 200mph, hence the devastation and the months and years it took to recover from it just 6 years after Hugo.

It's a double edged sword because people tend to get fatigued and complacent after near or complete misses and all the forecasts that don't get it right.

That happened in 95 when we had the near miss with Hurricane Louis the week before Marilyn. Many boaters and homeowners simply didn't take the same rigorous precautions as they did the previous week because they were exhausted of doing the Chinese fire drills to prepare for previous storms and that resulted in loss of life that was unnecessary.

Granted, no one can adequately prepare for a storm of that magnitude but it's important to continue to prepare because one never knows when we may get blasted with a similar devastating hurricane.

Be grateful instead of disappointed that we have lucked out thus far. November and the end of hurricane season seems a very long time away after watching David and Erika over the last 2 weeks! The thing to remember is storms are unpredictable and it's better to err on the side of safety.

I heard that 8 out of 9 feeders on STX are out.

We got worked pretty good last night. We're kinda at the end of a valley so we got some serious wind. It ripped both my screen doors right of their hinges and pick up my very heavy (tied down) patio furniture and tossed it 4 feet in the air. I watched this. We got at least 3 inches of rain towards Fsted. Watched as cops (or someone with blue lights) swarm the pier just as the power to the pier went out.

Luckily we filled the tub as we are doing dishs and cleaning the floors as the windows did leak some from the horizontal rain. Eating everything in the fridge that can go bad... Mmmm bacon and cheese! Lol

No power since 8 last night and I'm am HOPING it's back by tonight... Realistically tomorrow is guess. Missing my last rental... It was filled with Mosquitos but at least had a generator. What's the cost for a basic not whole home but TV and wifi style generator? Worth it? Lots of work and upkeep? Might get one.

Hubby closed OfficeMax yesterday at 1 and it's not open of course today because of the curfew. Once curfew is lifted we I'll go scope it out and see if and how bad it flooded - has a horrible history of back doors flooding - but it won't be open today. Wondering if lost dog wil be open later for pizza 🙂

After having them forecast Marilyn in '95 as a min. 90 mph hurricane,
I just always prepare for the worst and pray for the best. Marilyn had winds of 200mph, hence the devastation and the months and years it took to recover from it just 6 years after Hugo.

It's a double edged sword because people tend to get fatigued and complacent after near or complete misses and all the forecasts that don't get it right.

That happened in 95 when we had the near miss with Hurricane Louis the week before Marilyn. Many boaters and homeowners simply didn't take the same rigorous precautions as they did the previous week because they were exhausted of doing the Chinese fire drills to prepare for previous storms and that resulted in loss of life that was unnecessary.

Granted, no one can adequately prepare for a storm of that magnitude but it's important to continue to prepare because one never knows when we may get blasted with a similar devastating hurricane.

While fatigue/burnout was part of the issue, the bigger problem was the rapid escalation and trajectory change. If memory serves it was a TS/Cat 1 that wasn't really projected to hit the VI (or at least low probability) to going Cat 3 and bearing straight for the VI. I don't think anyone got too excited for her until late Friday morning. I don't recall seeing anyone putting up plywood till mid morning

While the weather folks get hammered for sounding the alarms too early, its a lot better than too late

Feeders 1, 5 and 10 are up I believe right now on STX. That's from friends and others I've heard from.

I have a leaking propane canister behind my house at the moment.
I had disconnected and secured the cannisters last night. Was going to try and reconnect it but i just touched the top of the cannister and gas just started shooting out of it where the top valve screws into the cannister. I found the emergency # for Antilles gas. They said they can't come because of the curfew so we're now waiting on the fire dept.

2" of rain in the gauge and 9" in the cistern. Mid island STX. Did a drive and saw only small broken branches. No downed poles. No downed lines. I'm on s hillside so we had very gusty winds but no damage. No generator, but I have 2 drums of water on the hill above the house tied into my piping, so I can flush toilets and run water in the sinks. Gas grill for cooking, so we'll rough it for a while.

Power just came back on in Gallows Bay.

beachcomber, thats what someone at work said. she has tons of family there. i hope she misheard . i also only hear 4 on the news sites.?

our power back at 10:40 ish in town stx