Tropical Depression #5 A.K.A Earl

Chris, my landlord gave me this site today but I can't seem to get it to go into motion...shows the track for #5 which is well south of us again...and the next one is also hopefully going to go that way as well.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atldefault/atlanticoceansatellite_large.html

Way too early to be predicting if it will impact your travel, which is still a few days away. I think, given what I've been seeing that if you check on Tueday you should have a better idea what might be coming through on Friday.

Update from the weather channel:
In the central and eastern Atlantic, there are now 2 more Tropical Storms to watch. Tropical Storm Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl. They both have the potential for further development as the 2004 hurricane season moves into high gear. Tropical Storm Earl is of the greatest concern as it is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles by Sunday and tropical storm warnings have been issued for St. Lucia, St. Vicent and Barbados. This system will then strengthen quickly into a hurricane well south of Puerto Rico and will need to be monitored closely by all in the Caribbean, especially Jamaica and western Cuba again

This is the one I use mostly http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ and then for further info I go to these, http://stormvi.com/ and http://stormcarib.com/. Actually am a reporter for the latter!
Looking at the track of Earl, it seems it will follow the same a Sir Charley. Looking at the historical tracks for storms in the same place and time, one strayed this way. Doesn't look like it will. Keep your fingers crossed.
Danielle is heading north and out to sea.
Ronnie

Ronnie, are you saying, that from a "historical" perspective, when we have actually HAD a serious hurricane experience, it is more because the hurricane has 'strayed' off the usual 'historical' tracks and that we are thus, 'usually' (however losely that could be applied), out of harms way?

A dangerous way of thinking. That what just happened to Florida. I remember wile living in FLorida people got kacky after many storms passed Florida by a hair. They did not prepare or evacuate. Never trust that a storm follows a track. Assume the worst and then e happy if it passed.

On another note does anyone know if Florida has a building code such as the Vi. It still seems as so the homes are build not to withstand a normal storm nevermind a hurrican.

Iris

Paul, after reading what you wrote several times I hope I can answer what you want. Historically, storms that hit the VI travel a little further north than those we are looking at this week. So, when you look at the historical tracks, you can see where the current one will most likely end up. Storms that hit us are usually the ones that come along alittle north of those travelling now. They pass thru further north like Antigua and St. Marteen. When they pass thru south at Barbados and St. Lucia, they tend to pass more south. I have been plotting hurricanes more than 30 years, when you had to listen to the coordinates on the radio from the weather station in Puerto Rico. No satelites but actual coordinates given by hurricane hunters. Satelites tend to be misleading. Even these days when you plot based on the satelite, a hurrcane hunter will go in and give the correct coordinates and it will show up degrees off and you have to correct your plotting map! I will let you know when to really start worrying!

Iris it sure looks like they need to use our building codes for their houses in Florida. To believe pepole live in trailers that are built to withstand a 65 mile an hour wind where a hurricane is named at 85 MPH! Billions of dollrs worth of damage! Sure hope nothing happens here this year as all of FEMAs funds will sure be used up!

Ronnie

Adding to what Ronnie said about www.wunderground.com, if you follow the links on that site they will take you to a very informative strike probability map.

As of Sunday morning there is zero probability of any storm or depression hitting the VI. Yesterday there was a 10% probability.

You need to look at hese sites regularly as things can change. Just look at what happened with Charley and where it made land fall.

Jim

Ronnie's comments about building construction in Florida sure makes sense and should be the subject of a huge scandal...{but it won't}...Nothing was done after "Andrew".

The fact that the US and Florida government has allowed flim flam contractors to sell flimsy mobile home to the unsuspecting buyers in Florida should be a crime.

We now know through our own experience that concrete construction is the real answer for huuricane prone areas "anywhere in the world".

Thanks

Ronnie, Thanks for the clarification. I understand the more northerly latitude thing, and Ernie is seemingly more northerly than the previous ones.

Iris - I'm not overly worried nor under-prepared.

My attention to this matter has been heightened by someone here on the property where I live, who is like tracking and plotting each one on paper - very serious endevour!

I certainly don't dismiss the very serious hurt that a storm can bring to all of us.

I was here last year in September so went through the end of hurricane season - including one that passed by many miles north of STX while I was there. We travelled out to Point Udall and watched the miles long huge swells that were arriving and breaking on the rocks below - awesome!

stXer wrote:

Nothing was done after "Andrew".

I remember visiting a friend after Andrew, about a month after. The state was statingng that 15 people had died in that storm. My friend had a doctor friend that was at his house in Kendall ,when I was there, and he told me he had persponally declared 15 people dead. There ere rumors of a couple of refrigrated containers loaded with victims, bui they couldn't say anything because they were all illegal migrant workers and that would open up a bag of worms!

Now you can buy products for your homes that are Dade Couny approved. I wonder if these rules are recquired in the other counties?

Ronnie

Sunday evening: I drove along St. Croix's Southshore Road around 6:30, and you could see the very northern edge of the storm just a couple miles out-very dark with thunder and lightening. To the north, it was much lighter. It started raining here around 7:15. There are some good bands on the radar.

Let us not forget Backdoor Lenny of 1999!

Late season storm that formed far to the West and moved to the East-NE!

See:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1999.html
(#12, note the direction of travel)

For some pretty good local weather try www.caribwx.com and go to latest. He stays pretty well on top of things.

I'm not sure I follow the comments on Florida's Building codes. Are you talking about construction or are you talking about mobile homes? Trailers aren't built, they're manufactured. In other words, what does Florida's building codes have to do with mobile homes? Wind resistance standards for mobile homes are mandated by the federal government, not state governments. Florida does however have requirements for anchoring mobile homes, and all new mobile homes must follow those requirements. Mobile homes in place before the new state-mandated requirements are not bound to retrofit the anchors.

I had a home built in Florida back in 1992, a couple of months before Andrew hit Dade County. I've since moved and had another house built in 1998, also in Florida. I can tell you that the difference in building codes is night and day. My latest house has over 200 hurricane straps affixed to the trusses and frame. In addition, every window and sliding door meets the 35 mph impact standard.

Sustained winds of 90 mph with gusts in excess of 110 miles ripped through my neighborhood last Friday night. I can tell you that not one person lost a roof or a window unless a tree fell on their house. Older neighborhoods weren't so lucky. Thus my confusion over the comments about "nothing was done after Andrew".

Richard N. Kurpiers

Richard. Glad to see you were okay. Also nice to know they did do something after Andrew! It stands to reason they would. Hopefully folks will retrofit after this.
Ronnie