Tropical Depression 15

Yep, DEF a heads up on this one since they are so unpredictable lately. We could be looking at at TS forming into a h'cane right over us on Wed/Thursday.

Yikes...not much wind...but so much rain!

Looks like he will be Hurricane Omar on Wednesday when he passes here as a Cat 1 storm.

Yeah, it's on a weird track ,moving north and a little east. www.nhc.noaa.gov

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200815.html

Here is a site updated by St. Thomas own Super Dave, http://www.stormcarib.com/.

Yuck.............CAT 1 by Noon Wed................And we have plywood to haul for shutters :-X

greetings

does the national guard still roll out in the big trucks with the megaphones warning everyone to do everything they can to protect their life and property?
do they still pick up people and take them to higher ground should they need to go?
they used to come through the neighborhoods like that back in the day.
dr. james would be on the radio telling us to pack a bag with necessities and be ready to evacuate our gates.
i had an idren that literally had his gates backed up right into a mountain.
his whole front facing the sea was glass.
all you could see on the horizon was sea.
it was amazing to watch storms passing right before your eyes.
i always felt safe there if there was a storm.
perhaps because of the security of the mountain.

guidance
Sis Irijah

You guys don't sound TOO worried... Someone told me that the storms don't get that big this late in the season - is that why? Are people going out to the grocery store tomorrow to stock up, or is Category 1 not too big a deal? Do you worry about your roof or just your windows? We just moved this weekend... I was hoping for a *little* break. And we just ate all our hurricane food so we wouldn't have to move it. This is probably my fault. 🙂

I guess it wouldn't be an authentic VI experience without at least a hurricane threat...

We started eating up our hurricane food and water a couple of weeks ago too. Now we have to go stock up a little bit again! Tomorrow morning's errands. See you at Cost U Less!!

PUBLIC SCHOOLS and Manor School CLOSED!

I'm taking TD 15 seriously and we'll spend the day securing every thing that a 50 mph wind can blow around at the condo and at home.

Wow, isn't that weird: an east-moving storm in predominantly eastern winds... I guess if the eastern winds are calm enough then this can happen. How often does this happen?

What year was "Wrong-way Lenny"? Late 90"s??

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Lenny

We were just finishing a vacation trip to Tortola by a week on St John in1999 when we heard nearby boaters talking about a strange weather pattern that might be a tropical storm. We followed the conversations for a few more days and then turned on the radio. Sure enough a late season tropical disturbance was forming in the wrong place and coming from the wrong direction.

"Lenny "chased us out of our rental on St John and we took a long long taxi ride to the airport on St Thomas. Turned out to be a hurricane but not on the level of Hugo or Marilyn.

Wrong way Lennie looks a lot like #15 right now.

ENGRMP - not very often, the last one was "wrong way Lenny" who was a nasty nasty storm that sat on top of us for almost two full days at hurricane 4 status. Not pleasant! ... that was at least 4 or 5 years ago now. What gets me about this storm and Lenny too is that they tend to sit.... and dump rain on us. Fortunatly TD15 is not strengthening as quickly as forecasted and now they are saying it won't become a hurricane until well north of PR but will likely move from TD to TS today or by midday tomorrow. Right now the sky is cloudy here but white and bright and there is no rain at the moment... wonderbar! I feel so sorry for my friends and family in Puerto Rico... this is exactly the kind of storm that wreaks havoc overthere with all their rivers and lakes and already saturated soil.

As for stocking up... this time of year you always want to have supplies on hand, but I'm not rushing out to stock up like I would if this was a hurricane. This is mostly going to be wind and rain and more water water everywhere...... I will try to minimize my need to go anywhere, make sure anything I have that could blow away is put inside or tied down.

NEWARRIVAL.... No.... I'm not freaking... or worried, I'm taking it seriously and preparing but I'm certainly not treating this anywhere near like I would a hurricane (no plywood out yet) :)......... but, as far as storms not getting too big this time of year... I believe that is false. Its true that typically we get our hurricanes in Sept... but October and even November (Lenny)... have seen BIG hurricanes come through. This one just isn't forecasted to be a hurricane until away from us so we are all doing what is appropriate for a storm its size... and keeping an eye on it so we don't get surprised.

Keep dry everybody and remember to bring in your dogs and cats and keep them protected... they don't like this weather either ya know!

Wunderground says:

The intensity forecast for TD 15
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate 10-20 knot range over the next two days, and waters will remain warm, 29°C. This should allow TD 15 to intensify into a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds by the time it moves through the Virgin Islands Wednesday evening. The HWRF and GFDL models predict TD 15 will have 65-75 mph sustained winds at landfall Wednesday night.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

So if we really get sustained up to 75 gusts will reach higher...similar to Jeanne in 2004.

And remember the higher the elevation, the higher the wind speed. I'm at 185'

As of 11am Omar was born as TS Omar
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200815.html

As slow as this storm is moving the rain is going to be the problem. Some models are show 30". Not so much a question of things blowing away but of floating off.

Jim

they are talking about cat 2 or even possibly 3 when passing over vi. check out latest wunderground.

This is looking serious.

Getting nervous.

The Hurricane Hunters arrived yesterday to fly the storm this morning to get the readings required to upgrade the depression to a tropical storm. This evening they bugged out to fly the next few days based out of Barbados. They believe the storm is coming right over the top of STX and that it will be at least a Cat 1 hurricane when it arrives mid-afternoon. It could be Cat 2 before it leaves us. The water is so warm south of us this time of year that it is feeding the monster and it may grow very rapidly the next few days. It will certainly be an interesting evening and overnight.

it is my meditation that everyone and everything is gonna be alright.

guidance
Sis Irijah