So What Are The Actual Numbers???

The numbers you state are approx and correct as Reported by Hovansa. The Full time resident population is a little over 50,000. Maybe a little higher with the down islanders and the snowbirds. What is your point.

The numbers you state are approx and correct as Reported by Hovansa. The Full time resident population is a little over 50,000. Maybe a little higher with the down islanders and the snowbirds. What is your point.

Point is with that population and the AP reporting 1200 and many, MANY people on facebook and this board and other uneducated boards posting over 2000 to over 2400, um, yeah, i'd say that's a HUGE percentage difference in the total population. If you wonder my point, it all goes back to people flipping out posting blogs and everything about the death and destruction of STX. Well, yes, either way it is going to be bad........... but if you look at the possible low, say 1k, versus rumors of 2.5k, that makes a HUGE difference in bringing the island back!

I would be interested in knowing what % of the territorial tax revenue the refinery contributed. I strongly suspect St Thomas runs at a deficit which Hovensa tax revenues made up for.

A few years ago, there were about twice as many people working at the refinery as there are today. Many contractors have been phased out in recent years and not replaced. The island was already hurting from the significant decline in numbers employed by the refinery and the associated funds spent on-island to support those people. Rental vacancies have increased and dropped in price, businesses have had fewer patrons, etc. Now we're doing it again and dropping a couple thousand more. The real estate industry also has been devastated by the economy over the past few years, so the refinery isn't the only source of financial pain on the island.

Yes, burris09, if you add 1200 local direct hires to 950 remaining contractors, you get over 2000 jobs lost. Even if they aren't USVI natives, many of those contractors have lived on the island for 5-25 years! They aren't short-timers for the most part. In the past when the contractor count was higher, a bunch of the increase were short-time contract workers who came for 1-6 months and occasionally renewed to stay a year or two before moving on to another refinery elsewhere. When the contractor count dropped, the ones who stayed were largely those who had stood the test of time and were well entrenched in the island. Those people do now consider this to be their home and most aren't happy to be leaving. Many have bought homes they now won't be able to sell and are going to be in dire straits. Those lost jobs correlate to lower business elsewhere as the contractors won't be spending money on-island anymore. They do count in the grand scheme of island economics. We don't ignore the contractors in the head count as they are a big part of the island equation. Even when the faces of the contractors change from year to year, the island has always had a few thousand of them, some with families along for the experience. They may not be counted in the census figures if they also maintain a house elsewhere, but they are residents and often spend more on the island each year than the average non-Hovensa occupant of the island.

burris09 - you've said repeatedly that this isn't that big a deal and we can make it up easily with magically conjuring other jobs that don't exist. You also admit you don't live here. Then there's the comment about "you people need to chill". I respectfully suggest that you consider the possibility that you don't have a deep enough understanding of island realities to be making such judgments just yet. Many people come here expecting that they will easily change the island and culture and economy and social dynamics. Nobody actually does, especially when they arrive exhibiting the attitude that they have all the answers and are the answer to everyone's prayers.

Rest assured that lots of people are hopeful that new jobs can be created in the months ahead and people will be looking for ways to make that happen. But there will also be businesses devastated by the loss of their client base and many of those businesses will downsize or close altogether. It's going to be a while before the net employee count stops dropping, stabilizes at rock bottom, and begins to recover. It will be even longer before we approach the number of jobs that were available before the Hovensa announcement. And longer still before we develop a new industry with skilled, highly paying positions to truly replace the Hovensa jobs lost.

The announcement was only made a couple days ago. Anytime a serious loss is suffered in life, there are stages of recovery to expect. It's hardly surprising or inappropriate for the mood of the moment to be shock and disbelief and dread and panic. When the shock wears off, the tenor of posts will change and hopefully improve as time goes on and people find any reason at all to seize on new hope. Rather than castigating people for expressing their fears about crime increasing, maybe back off and allow a couple weeks to go by so the people here who have legitimate fears to face in their lives have time to pull themselves together without your disapproving attitude.

By the way, the same day the refinery announced the closing, a long-time resident was found murdered in his home. The 5th murder of the young new year on the island. Then last night a beach bar burned to the ground. Forensics now says it was an electrical fire but the building was burglarized shortly after the fire. There have been numerous houses broken into and robbed lately, some while the occupants were asleep in their beds. So yes, crime is on a rise already and it isn't likely to miraculously disappear with the latest economic developments. It's more dangerous for residents NOT to share information about crimes they hear about than for posting to get the word out so people can take whatever precautions they can and be sure to look out for each other. Facebook is a new neighborhood watch mechanism of sorts in that info can be dispersed across the island in just minutes. I wish there had been this kind of info available to ME before MY house was burglarized and gutted in 2009.

Here are some numbers, as excepted from http://virginislandsdailynews.com/news/v-i-revenue-loss-through-closure-estimated-at-60m-1.1259821 :

Preliminary projections place the lost revenue paid by HOVENSA through real property taxes and employee income taxes "at a minimum" of $60 million, Gov. John deJongh Jr. said.

"We're still working those through, but I think it's safe to say that the impact is going to be tremendous," deJongh said during a press conference Wednesday. "We're now assessing that situation."

Past projections have maintained that HOVENSA accounts for about 20 percent of the territory's gross domestic product.

DeJongh said he has asked Senate President Ronald Russell to hasten the passage of a bill that senators have told him would eliminate the need for further dismissals of government employees. About 500 government positions have been eliminated since Dec. 30, and the governor has said another 500 dismissals could be necessary this month to address the deficit.

The specifics of that bill still are largely unknown to the public, but it is scheduled to go before the Senate during a Legislative session on Friday.

The refinery's employees - 1,200 direct employees and 950 contract employees, according to HOVENSA spokesman Alex Moorhead - make up 10 percent of St. Croix's entire workforce, according to the V.I. Labor Department's most recent figures. A loss of that many workers would double the number of unemployed people on St. Croix to more than 4,400 people and raise the unemployment rate on the island to about 20 percent.

The workforce for the territory is about 50,800, and the territory's unemployment rate would increase from 8.5 percent to 13 percent, according to the most recent figures, which do not take into account the 500 government jobs lost.

And from http://stcroixsource.com/content/news/local-news/2012/01/19/repercussions-assessing-toll-hovensas-closing :

As of November, the territory had 4,307 officially counted as unemployed by the Department of Labor out of a labor force of 50,842, for an unemployment rate of 8.5 percent. St. Croix saw an even worse rate of 9.2 percent, with 2,036 out of a 22,046-person workforce unemployed. Adding 2,150 people to the rolls of the unemployed would bring territorial unemployment to a gruesome 12.7 percent, assuming nothing else changed, and none were immediately able to find new work. That would give the territory a slightly better rate than Puerto Rico's 12.8 percent, and place us just ahead of Nevada, which has the highest unemployment rate of any state at 13 percent.

Looking at St. Croix alone, the picture is proportionally worse, with the big island looking at a potential for 19 percent unemployment, assuming all other factors remain the same.

The unemployment figures never take into consideration the self-employed people whose livelihood has suffered, as we don't qualify for unemployment benefits. A lot of people in the islands are self-employed when they are able to find work, but are not working at all or much at this time.

We don't call it unemployed we call it "it's slow"

As a business owner on St Croix was quoted in today's Daily News, "Everything's going to be fine. We went through Hugo. We didn't have no trees left, no power, no electricity. We survived it."

The same devastation was survived on St Thomas after Hurricane Marilyn.

Hundreds of people left both islands in the aftermath of both disasters. Those who stayed (and I was one of them who lost essentially everything in Marilyn) carried on and made it through to see slow recovery and eventually better days. Islanders are a stalwart breed.

While I don't wish to go into specifics about my background...I can tell you that in "my former life" I was medium to high up the food chain. When I left there were 1215 full time direct hires and about 920 contractors. That was not so long ago. Further, the "surge" workforce during turnarounds would sometimes get to 1500 for a short run- sometimes higher.

But let's just explore the "real numbers" as I see them. Please do not think that I am being condescending who otherwise rude- the comparisons and models are just that...

Currently, corporate wise they are largest property tax payer in the territory- $14.1 million a year in property taxes alone. Now let's set that aside; so the sum total of employees is about 2135. Let's say the have a mean salary average of $50,000 per annum (this is just an arbitrary number) and their average tax rate is 22%, that means that another $23.4 million a year. Corporate wise they were losing money, so corporate income tax is a moot point. Thus far we have a yearly tax income loss of $37.5 million. Now, on the raw spending power of 30% of each of their after tax income, I estimate that loss into the economy of $83.2 million- with $3.43 million in gross receipts alone. So the simple tax loss is around $40 million a year. The biggest problem is in the $83.2 million loss of revenue into private business- of which a tax rate would be in the neighborhood of 22% corporate and 4.125% gross receipts; so another $27.1 million in taxes is gone. So far, just on yearly tax income the VIG will lose about $68 million in taxes per year.

Now let's talk about some of the other little "add-ins- let's talk about the local service provider- the gardener, the store clerk, the auto mechanic, the Kmart staff- not to mention each and every on of those little thought of local goods and services providers which just lost probably and equivalent amount of income....This is not including the mortgage payments, property taxes and the right on down the list.

This is VERY unfortunate and my heart bleeds for all concerned...I left their employ about a year or so ago- guess I had "a feeling". On the rating of emotional distress, I think it rates about a 47 out of 100 on the stress factor for the layoff, 38 for the Financial State Change, 30 for the moving off island- and about 40 for the other subjective related events- a total of 155, which ranks pretty high for stress related illness with those directly laid off.

What can we do? Well, #1 is ALWAYS solidarity and unification in circumstance. The people left behind- I figure about 40% of those directly effected will NOT leave island; will have a "rough road to hough", maybe not immediately but within 90 days after 4/20. The immediate effect will be evident on the owners and workers of all the various goods and services concerns which will see a nearly immediate loss of revenue.
Crime was already escalating- in direct proportion to the unemployment percentage. This just adds to the lethargy and hopelessness of the whole situation. But let's not forget about the effects on the Spouses, Children and other family members directly impacted.

I think we need to stick together, watch our elected "leaders" closely to see what solutions are being garnered. The order of the day is transparency, reflective thinking, and community solidarity. Buy everything you can here on island. You see someone with a load of baby food or formula and their short a buck- give em a buck. What really worries me is that we won't learn from this experience...We never seem to do.

Your numbers are pretty real. In his address on the day of the closing, the governor estimated the cumulative loss in tax revenue would be at least $60M.

DaChief -

Elected representatives not elected leaders. I neither want nor expect to be "led". I am not "sheeple".

What ever happenned to the "Port of St. Croix" TIGER discretionary grant application from the PFA from 2009?

What does the lease agreement call for upon cessation of operations? I find it appalling to think the Hess will run it as a Tank Farm which will essentially mothball 70% of the footprint instead of getting them to clean it up and remediate the site back to the way they found it - which is what I think the lease agrees to btw. Seems to me the only reason to have a "Tank Farm" is to avoid to cost of remediating the site. Much cheaper to pay 100 EE's year after year than spend the necessary money to clean it up and remediate it isn't it?

How are we goint to attact investment to the channel and Port - which IS a unique and valuable asset - with that defunct refinery just sitting there?

Sounds like a gold mine for legal cousel to explore.....

Sorry about the "doom and gloom" just a subjective look at some of the economics. Remember that this is twelve o'clock on the vicious circle. The next concern that I have is the secondary set of lay-offs from the government and the private sector. All told, I believe a further 5000 people will be directly effected when this is send a done.

Enough with the problems- let's look at solutions. The Pols are already trying to hit up GERS for loans. Why would you get a loan from something that can't in fact sustain itself? Borrowing is not the answer. Federal Relief I think is what's needed. A Massive amount of it- first the Federalization of WAPA. Get those rates down IMMEDIATELY. I don't care where it comes from or how it gets here. This is not a traditional economic system- it's a specific type of macro-economy which dictates special out of the box thinking. Cut down the VIG expenditures second. The cars, the perks, the travel, the other large type spending which is clearly out of control. No more new government buildings, no more "educational junkets".

Lay-offs here have a plus magnitude effect, stay away from them at all costs by driving down other government expenditures- the temperature in offices, the loss of productivity due to the liming and "long lunches" and "clocked out" by others- reduce the government wide motor pool by an immediate 40-50%. Keep the gross receipt's tax where it is, create tax holidays- encourage the remaining businesses to remain open. Loss employees by attrition- they retire (who would want to) and leave the position unfilled for 180 to 360 days. Rigidly enforce prosecution of electrical and water theft. Enlist and petition the Federal Government to fully subsidize unemployment insurance outflow- give the territory back ALL of the excise taxes and customs collected from the territory....

Foodie:

I don't know any of the specifics with regard to lease agreements or RCRA required remediation- that's all in a league separate unto itself. Rumours abound and propagate rapidly and viciously. And, they do more damage then good. People who know me will say I'm excitable individual, with my true intellectual attributes guardedly hidden. But I must admit melee and the "coconut telegraph" provides entertainment.

HOWEVER, this is the time that our community needs us the most. No more melee, no more entertaining banter. Let's look at the plain facts, they support a whole list of possibilities, both positive as well as negative.

1) The refinery was losing money akin to a dam with a large hole. This was probably brought about by the fact that the petroleum fuel they used is more expensive than gas. Then add a downshift in refined petroleum prices and consumption, coupled with high crude oil costs. Then add the yearly subsidization of WAPA by their discount on oil prices. Once one of the partners stock went from 86 down to 52 in one year, something HAD to be done.

2) Remember, the facility is not closing just reorganizing for the time being apparently. Tank storage leasing provides for a full range of possibilities- I for one do not think that the refinery will remain out of production for more than one year. I believe that a "new" owner will come forth in about ten months or so. I think that the only answer to the EPA mandates is to completely close the west side of the refinery and to retool the east refinery to natural gas- cleaner, cheaper, easier on maintenance.

I also think there is an ulterior motive here. Reorganized union and government agreements, one of which will see the introduction of an LNG port storage facility and gas pipeline to WAPA- this will knock down emissions and energy costs- the question is "how much?" I think that a billion or so would do it nicely. That's a lot of cash. That's also a lot of jobs. St Croix could be the LNG hub for the eastern caribbean, getting gas from a multitude of suppliers.

Then again, the flip side is that some informed people "who are in the know" don't know what's going to happen.

To remediate that site would be a nightmare- not because of the clean up- but because of the sheer scale and magnitude of the effort- it certainly would drive unemployment rate down and take years to accomplish. This would be subject to intense Fed and Territorial scrutiny.
Not to mention probably much more than the billion dollar cost of retooling to NG.

I personally think that we have three basic options here- resume new operations, remediate and return, or go on indefinitely as a storage facility. All of these would take a year or more...

Purely a side note but Hess's departure is also going to have a huge impact where their benevolence to the community is concerned. Many people over the years have poo-poohed their contributions with scathing remarks and criticism but the truth is that their donations to worthy causes throughout the VI have amounted to millions of dollars. I don't think any major corporation has come even close in this respect.

Purely a side note but Hess's departure is also going to have a huge impact where their benevolence to the community is concerned. Many people over the years have poo-poohed their contributions with scathing remarks and criticism but the truth is that their donations to worthy causes throughout the VI have amounted to millions of dollars. I don't think any major corporation has come even close in this respect.

The one thing I was pleased to see addressed immediately by Hovensa when the announcement was made was that they would continue to honor all their scholarship commitments. Could you imagine being at college right now and being informed that Hovensa had reneged? I think this scholarship statement means they will also pay school fees for the kids in the private schools through the end of the year. I certainly hope so!

I wonder what the actual cost of remediation would be? I bet its more than retooling!