real estate cool down or still rising ?

Alexandra wrote:

"The more mature the world becomes, the quicker it recovers from disaster. "

With all due repsct, I am stunned that you could make a statement like this while people in Louisiana and Mississippi are still living in areas of total devastation, withlour power or water or phones, using buckets for a toilet, almost 5 months after Hurricane Katrina. And these folks are on the mainland, where they don't have to bring in people and trailers and food and building supplies by boat or by air!

I try to be as optimistic and upbeat as anyone, but the prospect of another Hugo scares the bejesus out of me. It took some people days to even clear a path from their homes to the main roads so they could see what else was left. Everyone, regardless of having hurricane shutters or not, had water in their homes. Electricity and phone service was out for months. People had to make due with using galvanize and wood scraps and windows that they found in the fields and blocking the roads after being blown off of other homes to try and make their homes liveable because there were no building supplies available for months.

This is not an event that we will recover from quickly. I don't care how little land governed by the Amerivcan flag there is in the Carribean, there is going to be ZERO demand for it for quite a while if it is stripped clean of vegetation and there isn't a home on island that didn't suffer some damage. And anyone with even a faint memory of the totally botched efforts to help get folks out of Katrina's path and bring relief to Katrina survivors will likely be rethinking their willingness to gamble their lives and life savings on moving to an island sitting in the middle of hurricane alley and near a major fault line.

Enough of the down sides -- time for this Crip to get upbeat and hip again.

--HC

Interesting discussion.

I was here for Hugo and all that followed him. My house was fortunately undamaged (people kept driving by and staring at it for days LOL .)

There was one guy who came here from down-island, built a shack on his land, lived in the shack while building his big concrete house. Hugo leveled the concrete house and left the shack standing for him to move back into LOL!! Such is the capricious nature of hurricanes.

Anyway, I didn't buy a house here in order to speculate in the real estate market. I live here because I love living here, and if a hurricane flattens my house and, Ishah' Allah, I'm still alive, I'll rebuild my house in the same spot and enjoy it while waiting for the next storm. You can't have it all.

Native Son, absolutely in agreement. Our family have picked pieces of our house up (literally) and recovered from damage numerous times in the past. Hip Crip also raised another part of the reality. Even though your home/property might have escaped with minimal damage, the infratructure takes months and YEARS to rebuild. And, municipalities or other providers responsible for even basic human services and necessities are never prepared finanically, organizationally, or.......

You have to be realistic and honest with yourself, your finances and your ability to be self-sufficient. Loss or damage of home is only the most obvious challenge.

Loss of electricity - invest in generator?....where to get fuel when replenishment resources no longer exist
Loss of water - Cistern damage, pump damage, ........
Illness and Injury
Transportation
Waste disposal
Insects and vermin
.......the list is endless and these are not easy problems to resolve anywhere, and ESPECIALLY in remote island communities.

Some might say we are too preachy concern with worst possible scenario. However, I suggest that all the elements of the "worst possible scenario" pass through my mind from June 1 to November every single year. And yet, I have invested in homes on a barrier island in FL and USVI. Maybe I should change my moniker to "Just Plain Nuts"

FL Barrier Islander,

Thanks for the response. One thing the storms have taught me and my wife is to live frugally. Even now, when all infrastructure is up and running, we use candles at night (very romantic, you know) and we have learned how to grow bananas, oranges, breadfruit, lettuce, tomatoes, etc. We know how to dip a bucket tied to a string into the cistern in case of no pump, and how to purify the water by boiling or with a little chlorine. The sun dries your clothes for free, unlike WAPA.

At least hurricanes give us plenty of advance warning, unlike earthquakes or tornadoes.

I am well aware that New Orleans has been through hell and will be decades recovering. I have a son in college in Louisiana and was there the week after Katrina hit. A large part of the disaster in New Orleans is due to the flood after the dikes broke. That only happened because the city was built below sea level, which was an odd decision in the hurricane zone. New Orleans is not only recovering from a hurricane.

Florida has been smacked multiple times the past years and the residents continue to put their neighborhoods back together.

My comment about speedier recoveries was not meant to offend or downplay the plight in Louisiana.

I do feel it is appropriate to point out that there are perils no matter where you live and living in fear or making no decisions to plan for a future are not really an ideal response to the possibility that a hurricane will hit the islands. Yes, storms happen and damage occurs and recovery will be necessary. We might get a small storm or a big one. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

I lost a lot when the tech stocks crashed... and those companies ceased to exist. A hurricane can lower property values for a while, but they rebound eventually. That makes them a better investment from my standpoint.

Alexandra, I did not mean to minimize your posts in any way. I defer to your field of expertise. Actually, based on posts on this board from you and other's - your professionalism is highly regarded. You've demonstrated a policy to be straight forward and encourage open communications. This string of posts offers the best of all communications - a frank and open discussion on the realities of living and investing in island communities. Our environment commands a healthy and, if we're smart, long term respect. I think we are all in sync. May the potential investors benefit with eyes wide open.

Although I responded to this post initially with regard to Hugo devastating STX, I was here on STT for both the relatively minor devastation on STT thanks to Hugo and then for Marilyn which trashed STT bigtime.

That the house I was living in and had lived in for 10 years recovered from Hugo and then was severely damaged by Marilyn is really not relevant in a sense. That I didn't have real power for six months is really not relevant in a sense.

It's amazing what one can accomplish, can deal with and live with in times of distress and I have many stories to tell on that score but they're not for here and now.

One of the main points that I don't think has been addressed on this thread is the general make-up of the two big islands and how they were both affected by both Hugo and Marilyn.

St. Thomas is a volcanic island, St. Croix is not. When Hugo swept through STX he was sweeping through and running rampant through basic flatlands and had an easy path. When he made it STT he was pretty much out of steam but still managed to mess us up here.

Marilyn was one whole different ballgame. I still have a hard time going there as I know many others do even after so many years have passed by. The goosebumps wrinkle up!

STT is a volcanic island. Big highs and lows. When Marilyn came through she spared little. Numerous houses stayed standing while a similar house in the middle was simply gone, wripped from its foundation and swept off. Why? Tornadoes.

A huge mahogany tree, hundreds of years old, by the Mandahl Peace Corps School, was literally wripped out of the ground and lay dying. Its roots were 50 feet across. Adjacent buildings were reatively unscathed. Why? Tornadoes.

Grand Union Supermarket on STT was a steel building which ended up in a heap wile surrounding buildings remained intact. Why? Tornadoes.

All that damage was caused by tornadoes.

For the longest time after Marilyn, the NHC didn't 'fess up that they screwed up and I venture to guess that they still haven't.

I didn't know you couls have tornados over the ocean.

Terry,

A tornado over the open water is called a waterspout. They're not as uncommon as you might think -- we saw/tracked six or seven of then during a Labor Day vacation in Ft. Lauderdale a few years back.

The tornadoes STT Resident spoke of were actually spawned in the hurricane. The National Weather folks still say it cannot be proven, but it is the only rational explanation for the type of damage Marilyn caused to STT.

--HC

Thank you.
Like someone posted that everywhere had it's problems,here in AZ. a couple of weeks ago, there was a giant dust storm. Several people were killed in a big wreck on the freeway outside of town.

This thread is interesting to say the least, but as a land owner in stt im not worried about the next "big" blow... The fact its comming is inevitable but i subscribe to the novel idea of insurance if re-building or repairs are needed. additionally i dont own there for resale or investment, i own for me because i love scenery, water... (which no hurricane can blow away)

Amen lip! Anyone who has followed coastal Florida's property values over the last two years, has seen prices rise dramatically -despite of the hurricanes. Prices have even doubled in many areas where shacks were blown away. They are currently being replaced by safer and more valuable structures.

In hurricane revaged coastal Mississippi, realtors are now reporting the same price increases as Florida has seen. It would be no different for the USVI, except these islands are more desirable and beautiful than Florida or Mississippi.

No one need own property for investment only. The main reason to own a piece of the Virgin Islands is for the beauty and spectacular scenery. The investment part will care of itself.

In yeasterdays Wall Street Journal it said that a huge amount of money in January & February is flowing into stocks and much of this money is coming from real estate. Apparently some investors are now seeing stocks as a hotter investment than real estate.

Jim

STT-

I was living on STJ during Marilyn. My first Hurricane. After narrowly escaping Luis, there was a lack of planning for Marilyn. Also, the storm seemed so small until is was upon us. I was amazed at the devastation on STT and on STJ. I will never forget riding out that storm in a shower stall listening to the roofs being ripped off around us, trees snapping.. Yikes! I can't believe that was over 10 years ago.

kregar

Jim, you are right, the hot mainland real estate market is starting to cool. Listings have doubled in some highly appreciating markets as "investors" pull out.
Curious, do you believe the VI real estate market is going to perform parallel to the mainland market?

Wow, I can't say enough about how great it is to have a forum like this....with all sides weighing in...it's important to hear everyone's viewpoint and experiences. And I sense that even though some opinions may differ, there is still a comraderie or bond linking all of you (hope to say "all of us" soon) together.

Where did you live Island Ed? The high rise you're referring to has finally been remodeled. New owners took it down to the concrete/red-iron and built downtown apts....very upscale and very expensive. They're still putting some of the finishing touches on her.

I remember calling mom/dad that night because you tend to know which ones are gonna be bad after awhile. And being an amateur stormchaser anyway I knew this spinner was up to no good. There were about 3-4 tornadoes that night and when I called the parents there was one on both sides of their neighborhood. They hadn't been listening and I told them they've got company....head to the tub. Luckily one spinner went back up into the clouds and the other missed them.

I still think there is some upside on STX. As early posters have said ocen view or ocean front properties are still cheap in STX when compared to the mainland.

You also have the protection of the US Flag.

With baby boomers starting to retire there will be buyers.

Jim

Jeff Whatoozy,
On the border of Arlington and Grand Prairie, technically in GP. Right in the middle of the "Metroplex". It's been booming there as the older city fathers finally leave off and younger, more development minded ones take over. Made some good money rehabbing there... even with all the foundation problems they have.