Hurricane Irma - 11am update

I am getting so pissed off at these news reporters and reports saying that Irma is no immediate threat to land.

What in the heck do they think an island is made out of?

Yeah was noticing the same, nothin on dem big rocks but birds and iguanas.

The actually mentioned St. Croix (an Puerto Rico) on the CNN weather spot this morning as a possible target.

GOOD NEWS!

The 11am advisory from the National Hurricane Center now predicts that, at 120 hours, it will be located at 18.0N and 59.5W as a Cat 3 at 125mph.

That is further north than the 8am advisory, and 15mph less.

Let's hope this trend continues, and that it does pass north and miss all the islands!!!!!!!

GOOD NEWS!

The 11am advisory from the National Hurricane Center now predicts that, at 120 hours, it will be located at 18.0N and 59.5W as a Cat 3 at 125mph.

That is further north than the 8am advisory, and 15mph less.

Let's hope this trend continues, and that it does pass north and miss all the islands!!!!!!!

That's the rise they predicted and then it's predicted to dip. Stay or get ready because there are more possible right behind it and we have a long active season upon us.

That's the rise that is forecast to happen when it's right near us.

The dip is predicted to happen over the weekend, then a rise again.

So the 120hr forecast is the final rise after the dip.

From the NHC at 11am:

Irma has turned a little bit to the left, now estimated to be
moving 285/11. The general synoptic situation remains well
established due to a building mid-level high, which should cause
the hurricane to turn westward later today and then move
west-southwestward through the weekend. An upper-level low will be
dropping southward on the east side of that high, and should be a
key feature to how far south Irma goes before eventually turning
westward and west-northwestward early next week.

So Joan, what does that mean? Will it skirt island north, doya think?

Pammerjo,

At this point it's anyone's guess!

Right now it looks like Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda might get hit.

From Jeff Masters on wunderground

Forecast models are in close agreement that Irma will track over increasingly warm waters (SSTs of 28-29°C or 82-84°F, which are about 1°C above average) as it heads toward the Leeward Islands on Sunday and Monday. On the other hand, wind shear will be increasing to the moderate range, about 10-15 knots, so Irma may not intensify beyond Category 3 strength through the Labor Day weekend.

Longer-term outlook for Irma
Irma should begin curving back toward the west-northwest early next week, but it is not yet certain that the curve will be soon enough to keep Irma away from the Leeward Islands, which lie within NHC’s five-day “cone of uncertainty” (see WU tracking map). Beyond Wednesday, the uncertainty in Irma’s track expands greatly.

One of the many sites I watch while I am not clearing the decks of furniture and plants, getting the shutters in position and inventorying my hurricane supplies.

http://stormcarib.com/closest.cgi

I'm feeling more confident on my "its going north" call....

Exit, yeah that's still my top website, too. Lowtech but packed with info.

US model has it definitely going north. Euro model still taking it close to us. Hopefully Euro is as wrong about this one as they were right about Sandy. I went to CUL today. I had to park in dirt next to produce stand. The lot was completely full. They were almost out of 1 gallon jugs of water. The rest was still well stocked. It was the perfect storm (pun intended) at CUL. First of month, government pay day, holiday weekend, back to school shopping plus impending Irmageddon. Everyone was well mannered and huge lines moved relatively fast. We have everything on checklist crossed except radio. Going to Kmart later to see as I heard Home Depot was out.

"Irmageddon" 😀

Getting better and better the later in the day it gets... this updated model is exactly what I want to see 🙂

Even the euro models are looking a little better
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11pm 9/1 update begins to look like we may have dodged this one?

I wouldn't stop preparing

The 5 am show it turning North, we will probably get wind and rain but it doesn't look like Irma will visit St Croix.

It looks like we might be out of the woods...but we are still in the cone and the tropical discussion said there is a 200 mile north south spread by day 5 from the top performing models. So yes I would say still prepare.

Inellicast has downgraded winds and rain for Wendsday/Thursday.
Highest winds for Christiansted are predicted to be around 30-40mph

11 AM has it still tracking north

Here is my forecast:

"Irmageddon" 😀

Hilarious!!!!

Most models have it skirting to our north now which is great news. What isn't is the new wave south of Cape Verde's. 80% chance already to be named storm in 5 days. I was looking at historical tracking last night of hurricanes and the tracking of Irma is nearly identical to Luis in 1995. This new wave is staring out significantly further south than Irma, almost identical to where Marilyn started. I wasn't here in 1995, but if anyone is curious check them out and let's hope history doesn't repeat itself.

We battened down the hatches for Luis which veered off at the last minute and clobbered BVI, Anagada in particular. A week later we were once again preparing for a 90 mph hurricane named Marilyn. I hadn't even put my house back in order as power was out and concentrating on getting business back up and running. Exhausting!
Well...It wasn't a 90 mph hurricane, unfortunately, and it was of very short duration, fortunately.

In STT, think the worst hit us by 11PM. It was pretty much done by 5 - 6AM
Longest hours of my life, except for the 18 hours that Hugo pounded us with, tied up in mangroves in Culebra.

Marilyn was a small hurricane, in circumference, but it took years to completely recover.

My boyfriend, 3 large dogs and I huddled in the guest bedroom closet, listening to freight train winds, things slamming into the house and reports of damage as 1 by 1 all of the radio stations got blown off the air until there was only one left, Lucky 13 AM. Honestly, I still get hurricane ptsd when storms approach.

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Secure your hurricane insurance paperwork and take before and after pictures, inside and out.

We battened down the hatches for Luis which veered off at the last minute and clobbered BVI, Anagada in particular. A week later we were once again preparing for a 90 mph hurricane named Marilyn. I hadn't even put my house back in order as power was out and concentrating on getting business back up and running. Exhausting!
Well...It wasn't a 90 mph hurricane, unfortunately, and it was of very short duration, fortunately.

In STT, think the worst hit us by 11PM. It was pretty much done by 5 - 6AM
Longest hours of my life, except for the 18 hours that Hugo pounded us with, tied up in mangroves in Culebra.

Marilyn was a small hurricane, in circumference, but it took years to completely recover.

My boyfriend, 3 large dogs and I huddled in the guest bedroom closet, listening to freight train winds, things slamming into the house and reports of damage as 1 by 1 all of the radio stations got blown off the air until there was only one left, Lucky 13 AM. Honestly, I still get hurricane ptsd when storms approach.

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Secure your hurricane insurance paperwork and take before and after pictures, inside and out.

STX Marilyn kicked steady 125-130 as it passed over us. The back end was the worst. Many roofs and such, mine included which was on a rental and no power for close to 2 months--STT got lucky