Hurricane here Sunday?

looking pretty dead on there. Batten down. Take care.

11pm update now showing it coming through Sat night

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201114_5day.html

Maria. I just met a girl named Maria.

May be putting-up shutters before the weekend.

Yeah, it's projected path is unnerving. Man oh man I hope it passes North.

It's a tropical storm, let's not borrow trouble. Hopefully it'll stay that way, because that's what they are saying.

It is a little early to make predictions but by Sat morning I will have my shutters ready to install [ 1 hr. max] and all the porch furniture and plants already safely stowed.

Check you favorite weather sites. The 11:00 AM update today does NOT look good! 🙁

What's changed? It's still says it's a tropical storm going over us? Don't get me wrong, we'll loose power, have flooding, etc but it's just a storm. Hurricanes especially a 2 or up are scary. Otherwise this seems more like storm excitement. And to me all storms just me extra work, but tropical storm is not scary.

It's just reminding me that I need to pick up some extra candles and batteries. No need for panic, at all. Just make sure you're prepared.

The current forecast is for the tropical storm to track right over STX, but weather is not a precise science and conditions can change quickly + unpredictably within 24 hours. Also, any TS can have embedded tornadoes, so...it is better to prepare for the worst. Put your shutters up tomorrow if the same path is predicted, and/or if the storm re-intensifies as they think it might. Storms lately seem to like to intensify as they pass over STX (think Jeanne, Omar and Irene)

The current forecast is for the tropical storm to track right over STX, but weather is not a precise science and conditions can change quickly + unpredictably within 24 hours. Also, any TS can have embedded tornadoes, so...it is better to prepare for the worst. Put your shutters up tomorrow if the same path is predicted, and/or if the storm re-intensifies as they think it might. Storms lately seem to like to intensify as they pass over STX (think Jeanne, Omar and Irene)

ie: Irene: Part Duex.

I agree, it's not scary, however islandjoan is right on the money. You don't have to be Chicken Little, but do keep an eye on it. My biggest issue is the inevitable power outage that can go on for days. Dealing with a generator, yard clean up and other damage, even if minor, is a pain. I'm not afraid for my safety, or that the roof is going to blow off, just not looking forward to the situation. And we sure don't need any rain, right now. Haha...just started raining at my house!

Okay, the 5 o'clock pm discussion includes the following:

"THIS INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST BUT
THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST."

They are pretty sure it is coming over us, but as a depression? storm? or a bigger surprise?

Plan for the worst and hope for the best.

islandjoan: They are so much better at predicting direction than even a few years ago, but they still have trouble with sudden changes in intensity. Maybe not perfect science, but getting better all the time. Here is to the meteorologists!

Maria. I just met a girl named Maria.

May be putting-up shutters before the weekend.

Now, she should be putting up the shutters and you're suppose to be trying to open them. 😀

I think that it's much more important to pay attention to the storm's track than it's predicted strength. The strength can change very, VERY quickly. Thus, if it's scheduled to directly hit the island, it's something to take seriously, regardless of it's predicted strength.

Translation: Maria should be taken seriously. Much more so than Irene, IMHO.

Be ready but it looks like a 35mph storm.

This kind of storm, IMO, is the MOST dangerous. It is definitelly coming right over us and it will probably not be very strong -- maybe not even a TS. But that status could change at any time. One should prepare for the worst and not be surprised when it happens!!

Based on the latest forecast, STX could experience winds to 50 MPH. We are going into storm prep mode at the condo after lunch.

Just stay informed and prepare.

I agree with Linda

looks like maria will be here @ 8PM on Saturday with 40-50 MPH winds. be ready, be safe

It's slowing down -- bad sign.

Any idea as to whether the winds are stronger near the top of the higher hills/mountains? We're very high up in Clairmont on STX.

I was just kidding on my previous post. I read these forums sometimes and I hope you all stay safe.

Bob

The winds do tend to be stronger the higher up you are.

I was told that the wind velocity increases about 10% for every 100 feet of elevation when I was building.

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES EARLY TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY LATE TODAY...THEN SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.